Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
The Conservatives changed leader twice in 2022. With the polls pointing to a wipeout, a divided party and pressure from Reform UK, is anot…
Was last week good or bad for Joe Biden?
2023 was an ‘off year’ for national elections, but the results were overwhelmingly good for Democrats. So why do Betfair markets remain distinctly unimpressed by Joe Biden?
Top stories
This week
Media AppearancesExtensive interview on political betting with Smart Betting Club
A long-form conversation with Pete from Smart Betting Club on turning professional, finding angles in political markets and the lessons of…
PodcastsEpisodes 7 and 8 of Get Out The Bet: 2024 market moves
The final two episodes of 2022: Trump’s announcement, whether Biden is a lock for the nomination, the Georgia run-off and an alternative t…
Betting Strategy
Should we bet on the Mandelson Dim Sum Supper forecasts?
Every Christmas, Peter Mandelson and friends make political predictions for the year ahead. Here is how those forecasts compare to the prices — and where I take the other side.
Prices quoted in this piece
Next UK GE 2024 or later1.16 · 86%
No Overall Majority2.58
Labour majority2.06
Conservative majority8.6 · 12%
Starmer next PM1.43 · 70%
Latest
USA
Was last week good or bad for Joe Biden?
2023 was an ‘off year’ for national elections, but the results were overwhelmingly good for Democrats. So why do Betfair markets remain di…
UK
Could 2023 see a new Tory leadership crisis and Boris Johnson return?
The Conservatives changed leader twice in 2022. With the polls pointing to a wipeout, a divided party and pressure from Reform UK, is anot…
Betting Strategy
Should we bet on the Mandelson Dim Sum Supper forecasts?
Every Christmas, Peter Mandelson and friends make political predictions for the year ahead. Here is how those forecasts compare to the pri…
Media Appearances
Extensive interview on political betting with Smart Betting Club
A long-form conversation with Pete from Smart Betting Club on turning professional, finding angles in political markets and the lessons of…
Podcasts
Episodes 7 and 8 of Get Out The Bet: 2024 market moves
The final two episodes of 2022: Trump’s announcement, whether Biden is a lock for the nomination, the Georgia run-off and an alternative t…
Podcasts
The Polling Station: Trump runs again
Recorded the day after Trump announced a third run: the ramifications for 2024 markets, plus whether backing Labour to win most seats is f…